Hacker News Re-Imagined

Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

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  • 4 months ago

  • @eis
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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack


@Borrible 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Oh, just in case. How will NATO respond if one of its members invokes NATO Article 5 in the near future because of cyberattacks against it?

Kinetic attacks, of course, are easy to classify, even if they happened accidentally. For example near the polish border.

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@allisdust 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

It's like he was just waiting for Merkel to leave the office. Really weak response from NATO. Not even advanced arms supply apart from some token donation. Afghanistan withdrawal seem to have emboldened a lot of global players.

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@Tenoke 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Are there any good verified resources of primary targets for bombings in different countries? E.g. I live in Berlin and would like to know in the worst case which places are most likely to be bombed. Similar for other places I'm curious about.

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@ycombinete 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard Zbigniew Brzezinski did say that if Europe went to war again it would start in Ukraine.

Some choice quotes:

“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”

“However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.”

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@robk 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Ukrainians who are looking to emigrate (temp or perm) will be handled with speed if they're applying for a UK endorsement for moving here https://technation.io/visa/

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@coryfklein 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Can anyone explain why Putin wants Ukraine so badly? Is it natural resources, geography, or simply a "the country must grow" mindset?

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@osynavets 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality

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@wyiske 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Not sure if this has been shared, but Yuval Harari, eloquently explains why everyone should care about this, the first invasion of a democratic peaceful country in my memory

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/02/09/yuval-noa...

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@cglan 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

It’s sad but my father always told me that the good times we’ve had are unprecedented and they can end faster than we think.

I never believed him growing up, institutions and America seemed infallible. It’s sad to say but I think with global warming, covid, and the general decline of American soft power we’ll see more and more global turmoil

My heart goes out to Ukraine and its people

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@MattGaiser 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I await the Russian trolls to tell us that this is all Western propaganda.

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@maybelsyrup 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I love threads like these bc it really makes clear how knowing like 2 years' worth of C++ turns you into the world's greatest strategic genius

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@morelandjs 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Thurb off Google Russia. Looks to be one of their more popular websites.

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@belter 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

"How to help the people of Ukraine: things you can do"

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30454181

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@sillysaurusx 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I’m trying to help my programmer friend escape Ukraine. Since smuggling is a hack, I’d like to ask HN for suggestions on how to pull this off.

His elderly father is being drafted. I got a DM from a mutual asking me whether there’s anything I could do for them. I have money but no knowledge of the country; they live there but have no money.

During WW2, various affluent people helped smuggle Jews out of Germany. I’d like to help my friend’s family in a similar way. But the reality of doing this is very different than the stories from history.

Currently my only plan is to yeet some cash at them and say good luck. But I was hoping to come up with something better.

I could book an airbnb for their family in a neighboring country, for example.

Does anyone know if the busses are still running? Is it possible to leave Ukraine right now via traditional means, or would they have to hoof it on foot? If they need to walk, does anyone have a suggestion on which part of the border might be friendly for an elderly family to cross?

I know this sounds unlikely, but given the choice between unlikely and “do nothing,” I’ll bet on unlikely.

EDIT: I made a twitter thread to share updates: https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193

And a second HN comment further upthread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30451691

It turns out that other people are trying to do this too. If we pool our knowledge, our chances probably go way up. Definitely get in touch.

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@ginja 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I just woke up to this news and I'm wondering if it's possible for Apple and Google to brick all Russian phones? This would probably be more effective on their population at large than any form of sanctions.

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@formvoltron 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Putin is an absolute mad man. The West should have taken him out a long time ago. It's doubtful anyone who replaced him would be so crazy.

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@dealforager 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I've worked at tech companies that despise helping the US military. Please understand that the world is complex and although all superpowers have done terrible things, helping the US is the only way our children will live in a peaceful world. This isn't about democrats or republicans, the future of humanity will be decided in the next decade.

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@uejfiweun 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation?

And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the economy?

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@efitz 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

The globalists have been telling me for years that we are post-national, that borders are obsolete, etc. We have seen mass migration from the Middle East to Europe, and from central and South America to the US, and we’ve been told that this is good.

Now I’m supposed to actually care about a Westphalian nation state? I don’t get it.

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@MrDisposable 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Russian here, under a throwaway account.

Putin's Russia is committing a civilizational suicide.

Soon we will turn into a North Korea, completely isolated from the world, with no high-tech industry, and the only major "ally" being China. Lots of human potential will be wasted forever.

This will last for 10-15 years, then Putin dies (he's not immortal). I don't see Russia being chained to China forever, so I think we are bound to repeat the process of re-opening to the world -- the same process we went through in the 1990s.

I have pretty good chances of spending my entire remaining life in this predicament.

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@ifokiedoke 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

There's some real vitriol here and comments bordering on being open discriminatory attacks ("Russia is a wasteland of civilization and we should just nuke them", "stop drinking Vodka, Sergei"). I hope that folks remember that the state isn't the Russian citizenry, and even if there is a minority support for this in the country it doesn't represent the people... _especially_ when the leader is a murderous autocrat.

This is a disaster and heartbreaking for everybody on the ground, Ukrainian and otherwise. We shouldn't forget that when the USSR fell, folks had moved all over the place. Friends and families are very blended in the former Soviet Union, and there are many, many Ukranian-Russians as well. My wife was born Russian-Estonian, with a lot of Russian-Ukranian family, and it's unhelpful to have one half of your heritage bombed and the other half being called the wasteland of civilization.

Don't make the situation for everyone even worse, no one needs that.

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@mensetmanusman 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

The interesting thing is that this wouldn’t have happened if the US hadn’t gotten rid of Ukraine’s nukes and promised to protect them after they got rid of them.

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@agumonkey 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

In the recent video where Putin gathered some officials to discuss intel, you could see them stuttering and fumbling their speech. It seems Putin is pulling all the strings and that even higher ranks are puppets. Potentially a lever.

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@galaxyLogic 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Does Putin care about possible NATO expansion? Probably yes because he can't push NATO countries around so easily. And he really likes to push countries and people around to do what he wants them to do.

Think about it, he likes power so much that he has made himself the de facto dictator of Russia. People opposing him get murdered or jailed, or murdered in jail. He really likes power. He is said to be world's richest man. He loves money and power very much we can tell from his actions. If he can get more power he will take it.

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@VoodooJuJu 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I never understood the good effects of American hegemony until they started breaking down.

- nyokodo | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27565836

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@purple_ferret 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Between this and the takeover of Afghanistan it certainly has been an extremely sad year.

The End of History? Not so fast. Free people not having a good run here.

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@M0r13n 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

What would happen if the western tech giants decide to shutdown every service in russia? No AWS, no GCP, no peering, etc. I am pretty sure, that most companies in russia rely on western infrastructur in some way. Also it would be pretty hard for russia to keep spreading fake news.

I guess that Putin would loose his remaining following if the smartphones of the population became useless.

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@entropicgravity 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I have a feeling that Putin and the oligarchs will continue to access the world financial institutions through China, particularly Hong Kong.

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@twocatss 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I feel so pessimistic and angry right now. What can I do is only making best wishes to Ukraine people.

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@kisstheblade 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Why can't the western nations seaze all assets of the oligarchs. For example take their super yachts and drive them out to sea and blow them up as a symbolic gesture? Take control of all their appartments etc. Drive all russians out of their countries (yes it will hurt "normal" russians but so what, this is war, maybe they would start to think about their leaders a little bit more).

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@VoodooJuJu 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

What is the endgame here?

Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily.

If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much.

If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO).

The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss.

But it doesn't make sense that a nation as sophisticated as Russia would accept such a high risk of loss. Which means that they might actually believe the risk of NATO intervention is low.

How could the risk be low without some kind of collusion or hidden knowledge (hidden from us common folk)? Are "they" ("the global elite", "the military industrial complex") all "in it" (profiting) together? Is Russia just suicidal? If (when?) Russia loses out, how do they react?

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@Osiris 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

This whole action makes no sense to me. I do not understand Putin's motivation here. I can't see an economic or political justification.

The only reason I can think of is that he just yearns for more power regardless of the costs.

Can anyone provide any possible reasons Putin would have for doing this?

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@newbamboo 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

We should send Hunter back over there and see if he can’t fix this mess.

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@warner_of_doom 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I am for keeping Ukraine as a neutral buffer separating Russia and the US.

NATO proposed Ukrainian and Georgian membership of NATO in 2005-2008, in the clear knowledge that this would destabilize the situation.

France, Germany, and others were against this. The proposal began the issue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBQikfYyKs

We then openly backed the 2014 putsch in Kiev, an open act of aggression just as irresponsible as a military incursion. CIA John Brennan, Senator John McCain, and Diplomat Victoria Nuland were there in Ukraine when Yanukovych was being overthrown. There is also evidence to show that we were involved through NGOs in overthrowing and promoting an atmosphere desiring the overthrow of Yanukovych.

This war is about more than just Putin.

Research: George Friedman, Peter Zeihan, John Mearsheimer, Peter Hitchens, Noam Chomsky (more of an ideologue), etc. on this issue. You can start on YouTube OR read their books, I guess.

These are all PhDs or experts in some fashion that I just cited. You could just read their books too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Friedman

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Hitchens

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky

"F* the EU" said Diplomat Victoria Nuland -- knowing full well that the Germans and French would be against a coup in then-neutral Ukraine.

Meanwhile, once again, soon after the Iraq debacle: here we are getting dragged into another "war for democracy".

Russia and America turned Ukraine into a "if we can't have, burn it to the ground" situation. Further American intervention in Ukraine will just turn it into another Syria.

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@ripvanwinkle 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

To some extent this situation feels analogous to a street mugging happening in very slow motion

The thug accosts the victim, threatens and then proceeds to assault the victim in full view of a large number of bystanders who are numerous enough to defend the victim and alter the outcome but not convicted enough to take on the inconvenience of doing so.

Nevertheless all the bystanders voice words of encouragement and sympathy and even offer to sue the aggressor in court after the fact if the victim is harmed or killed.

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@dukeofdoom 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was looking for a little while like the West might make peace with Russia. In the post collapse of the Soviet Union, Billionaire Oligarchs emerged that controlled most of the business and finance while the Russian population was extremely poor.

When the Russian judicial system went after a few of them, and specifically Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the US immediately started to sanction Russia.

Since then I've lived through years of the West accusing Russia of interfering in democracy, and just endless nonsense propaganda, like blaming Putin for Trump winning the election. Zero self reflection on them interfering in Russia.

While I support Ukrainian independence, I understand why Putin would freak out about having a hostile neighbour backed by the West and capable of installing weapon systems within close Range of Moscow.

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@unnouinceput 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Ukraine is the new 80's Afghanistan. War by proxy between US and Russia. Welcome to Cold War 2.0

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@hnthrowaway0315 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

What I'm thinking is, if Russia moves forward a few more days, maybe Poland will move as well. Lvov, anyone?

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@twocatss 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I feel so pessimistic and angry right now. What i can do is only making best wishes to Ukraine people, wish the Ukraine soldiers are tough enough to expel Russian army.

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@Invictus0 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

A lot of HN commenters looking really stupid today after this thread a few weeks ago. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30220841

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@siliconescapee 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Updates from Russia today: - City centers are blocked by policy to prevent protests/marches - Arrests of people at protests - Volgograd airport has been closed - Russians lining up at banks to withdraw cash, bank limits put in place midway through the day

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@rdtsc 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I am curious, what do Russians think of this. Does anyone support him? Is it completely just one maniac with his friends running this.

Is his propaganda that effective that Russians agree with any of it. I think if anyone can stop him, it has to be ordinary Russians. I don’t see sanctions or warnings from Biden or EU doing anything. And they will never directly step in and protect the Ukranian people.

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@jeisc 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Soon we will see a firewall around Russia to block cyber attacks?

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@randomsearch 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

From a tech perspective, we should be considering the part we have played in these events.

I’ve come to the conclusion that democracy cannot coexist alongside unfettered propaganda divorced from truth. That is what social media represents - Twitter and especially Facebook - machinery for manipulating people without regard to truth.

Trump and Brexit have greatly harmed the West and their ability to respond to Russian aggression. Both were made possible by the social media companies.

We obviously need governments to step in to heavily regulate or shut down these companies, but their employees should also be asking if they are truly making the world a better place.

What we are seeing on our screens right now is the physical consequences of an asymmetric information war, aided by thousands of software developers earning large salaries.

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@ohwellish 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

russian military never been in direct full scale fight with Ukrainian forces before till this morning, they have no idea where they got themselves into and what is coming to them - we will bury them all! every single one of them

Our time to fight back has come - Glory to Ukraine! Слава Україні!!!

update: dont get me wrong, true Russians are against this war, I have alot of friends in Russia and they ALL sending me messages of support - мы поможем вам стать свободными, братья!

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@Borrible 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Oh, that?

That's simply the strategy of Mad Men.

The problem is, he really is mad and has thousands of nukes.

The self induced detachment from reality like Angela Merkel suspected in 2014. In reality a corrupt second class paranoid ward boss of a corrupt second class paranoid former major power. With thousands of nukes. And he probably thinks his time is running out to establish a Russian empire in his lifetime. Despite thousands of nukes.

Do you recognize the repeating pattern above? Thousands of nukes.

So yes, he will use nukes if there is no other option left.

There will be a Russian Empire or there will be nothing. Your choice.

Pray some fraction from the Russian power apparatus eliminates him in time. But I doubt, there is anyone left, not infected by the same illusion.

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@kragen 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Historical context: https://dercuano.github.io/notes/wwiii-genesis.html

Today's Reuters article text:

Russian forces invade Ukraine with strikes on major cities

By Andrew Osborn and Natalia Zinets

MOSCOW/KYIV, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian forces fired missiles at several cities in Ukraine and landed troops on its coast on Thursday, officials and media said, after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation in the east.

Shortly after Putin spoke in a televised address on Russian state TV, explosions could be heard in the pre-dawn quiet of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Gunfire rattled near the capital's main airport, the Interfax news agency said, and sirens were heard over the city.

"Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

"This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now."

U.S. President Joe Biden, reacting to an invasion the United States had been predicting for weeks, said his prayers were with the people of Ukraine "as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack", while promising tough sanctions in response. read more

"I will be meeting with the leaders of the G7, and the United States and our allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia," Biden said in a statement.

Russia has demanded an end to NATO's eastward expansion and Putin repeated his position that Ukrainian membership of the U.S.-led Atlantic military alliance was unacceptable.

He said he had authorised military action after Russia had been left with no choice but to defend itself against what he said were threats emanating from modern Ukraine, a democratic state of 44 million people.

"Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine," Putin said. "All responsibility for bloodshed will be on the conscience of the ruling regime in Ukraine." read more

The full scope of the Russian military operation was not immediately clear but Putin said: "Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything by force."

Speaking as the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting in New York, Putin said he had ordered Russian forces to protect the people and appealed to the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and border guards, and that explosions had been heard in many cities. An official also reported non-stop cyber attacks.

Zelenskiy said that martial law had been declared and that he had spoken by telephone to Biden. Reservists were called up on Wednesday.

Three hours after Putin gave his order, Russia's defence ministry said it had taken out military infrastructure at Ukrainian air bases and degraded its air defences, Russian media reported.

Earlier, Ukrainian media reported that military command centres in Kyiv and the city of Kharkiv in the northeast had been struck by missiles while Russian troops had landed in the southern port cities of Odessa and Mariupol.

A Reuters witness later heard three loud blasts in Mariupol.

Russian-backed separatists said they had launched an offensive on the Ukrainian-controlled town of Shchastia in the east, Russia's Interfax news agency said, and explosions also rocked the breakaway eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk.

Hours earlier, the separatists issued a plea to Moscow for help to stop alleged Ukrainian aggression - claims the United States dismissed as Russian propaganda.

Global stocks and U.S. bond yields dived, while the dollar and gold rocketed higher after Putin's address. Brent oil surged past $100/barrel for the first time since 2014.

'DECISIVE WAY'

Biden, who has ruled out putting U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine, said Putin had chosen a premeditated war that would bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering.

"Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way," he said.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia's "reckless and unprovoked attack" and said NATO allies would meet to tackle the consequences.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking after the Security Council meeting, made a last-minute plea to Putin to stop the war "in the name of humanity'.

Ukraine closed its airspace to civilian flights citing a high risk to safety, while Europe's aviation regulator warned against the hazards to flying in bordering areas of Russia and Belarus.

Russia suspended domestic flights at airports near its border with Ukraine until March 2, its aviation agency said.

Shelling had intensified since Monday when Putin recognised two separatist regions as independent and ordered the deployment of what he called peacekeepers, a move the West called the start of an invasion.

In response to Putin's Monday announcement, Western countries and Japan imposed sanctions on Russian banks and individuals but held off their toughest measures until an invasion began.

The United States stepped up the pressure on Wednesday by imposing penalties on the Russian firm building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and its corporate officers.

Germany on Tuesday froze approvals for the pipeline, which has been built but was not in operation, amid concern it could allow Moscow to weaponise energy supplies to Europe.

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@pknerd 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Putin is following the US business model: Attack on other sovereign countries to sell weapons. Though I doubt he would be as successful as the US.

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@swayvil 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Maybe it's a distraction.

Mainstream media is already using it as justification for the present extreme inflation in usa.

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@puffoflogic 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

The US administration has been crying wolf for so many months now that I practically doubt this news.

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@ImprovedSilence 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Hang on to your butts, they're gonna come for all of Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

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@javajosh 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

How horrible for those that will die now, and over time for anyone in Ukraine who wants the right to express dissent with government policies without being bullied, harrassed, harmed or killed for it. This is a right worth fighting for, for ourselves and others, and always will be.

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@drewhk 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

From Hungary with deep shame because of our traitor government. There are many of us that are deeply disturbed with what is happening, and our government is not representative of all of us.

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@meijer 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I hope all Russians reading this are aware how serious the situation is.

The world now looks at Russia similar to how it looked at Nazi Germany in 1939.

You've got to get rid of Putin.

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@simonh 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

A quarter of the EU's grain imports come from Ukraine, and they're a big supplier to Turkey and the rest of the Middle East and Africa. Germany also depends on Russian gas.

None of that matters though, Putin is at war with us. We should wake up and go to war with him back, something we've avoided. Wars are costly, but this one doesn't have to cost lives. NATO isn't going to send troops into Ukraine, but we should economically shut down Russia. Kick them off Swift, close the gas and oil pipelines. Eat the cost.

Germany's gas infrastructure is much better integrated to the rest of Europe now than it was a few years ago, and the EU has extensive emergency reserves. We're also coming out of winter soon. We'll just have to buy more cereal from the US. Prices will go up, jobs will be impacted, but solders won't be dying. Not yet. If we don't bite the bullet and accept the pain now, this is only going to get worse. What's next, Georgia? Kazakhstan? Finland isn't in NATO. If China sees we're soft on Russia, what does that mean for Taiwan?

We need to wage all out economic war. The cost of doing nothing has gone up, and up, and up. How high are we prepared to see it go?

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@voisin 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Has China weighed in at all?

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@fasteddie31003 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I believe order and chaos are the two most predominate forces in nature. Russia is a very chaotic nation (granted they made the RD-180 rocket engines, but they murdered Korolev) Life favors the ordered.

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@Zanneth 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Can anyone provide a non-biased explanation about why this is happening? Why is Russia carrying out this attack?

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@leke 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I'm not happy that (my) Western governments are not fighting with the Ukrainians after seeing them invade the Middle East - Iraq (false flag WMDs) and Afghanistan (ok they were harboring terrorists, but pointless operation).

This would seem like the right thing to do, but apparently it isn't. I have a feeling that sometime in the future, we will look back at this as an oppertunitly where we could have stopped Russia.

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@black_puppydog 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

> Biden praying for victims of 'unprovoked' attack

I think there should be a line added to the press codices of this world to never ever let this kind of meaningless "thoughts and prayers" line be transported. A politician should not even put it in their press releases, knowing that nobody will print it.

As a citizen, thoughts and prayers might be all you can do.

As a politician, it's your damn job to do things. Thoughts and prayers won't cut it.

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@reddog 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Some economic perspective. The Russian economy is 10x the size of the Ukrainian. The US economy is 14x larger than Russia's. The Canadian economy is larger than Russia's. The combined economy of all of NATO is 25x the size of Russia's. This does not even include Pacific allies like Japan and ANZUS.

For historical perspective, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor the US economy was 7x larger than theirs. At the end of WW2 the red army had 12 million soldiers in uniform compared to the estimated 120K Russian soldiers now invading Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

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@jrx 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

My reasoning here is as follows:

Putin doesn't care about money - he has all the money he needs. He doesn't also care about welfare of average Russian citizens as long as he can stay within power.

He cares mostly about staying in power and by extension about others perceiving him as a good leader. It is incredibly obvious to me that dictators don't end well when they lose their power. I assume losing power is as bad outcome for Putin, game-theoretically as getting Russia nuked to the ground.

Over the last 30 years Russia was progressively losing ground within its' sphere of influence. Poland, Ukraine even Belarus are slowly fading further and further away. All the context for today we need is the Orange Revolution, Euromaidan and recent protests in Belarus which show high level of anti-russian and pro-western sentiment among society of these countries.

When those countries turn fully pro-western, with relatively wealthier and happier citizenry, it's a matter of days rather than years when the same sentiments will reach Russia, leading to a quick change in Russia's top-level government.

If Putin wants to stay in power, he must convince people in Ukraine and Belarus that it's in their best interest to stay on his side. And lethal force is really the only tool he has at his disposal for it.

So his options really are: - Hope that he can cling to some remaining bits of power until a reasonably peaceful end of life and be aware that probably soon afterwards Russia will start turning pro-democratic. - Do whatever is within his control to keep Ukraine and Belarus subdued.

Weighing pros and cons in this particularly hard situation, he must have chosen that option number two has a higher EV to keep him in power for longer. What can happen now:

- (best scenario for the democratic world) Ukrainian forces manage to defend themselves from the offensive. That basically means Russia's collapse as it is today. It's probably in the best interest of many western democracies to maximize the probability of this outcome, but I'm not sure how probable it is really.

- (worst scenario for the democratic world) Ukraine is taken over completely very quickly with minimal Russian cost and loss. World doesn't really have a chance to react. Russia weathers sanctions ok and gets into closer ties with China.

- Russia cripples Ukraine military, the war drags on guerilla-style. Russia manages to successfully occupy part of the country and the rest becomes warzone wasteland. Russia saves face, Ukraine and Belarus and under complete control.

- War drags on and Russian can't continue with the cost of it. Ukraine gets severely weakened but manages some resemblance of independence while Russia occupies only very minor territories. May be enough for Russia to save face, but I would bet not really and it would lead to another scenario where Russian government collapses.

- Western allies get involved in the conflict, but none of the sides decide to use nukes. Russian military will get destroyed and Russian government collapses.

- (worst scenario for the whole world) Western allies get involved in the conflict, and one of the sides decide to use nukes. Humanity's development gets moved back hundreds of years.

- China and Russia are in active cooperation. Russia will keep escalating the war in Europe until one or all western nations engages. On that day China begins offensive on Taiwan and attacks US. WW3 starts.

I believe in most of the countries in the world military command is playing out all of those and many more potential scenarios. I would like to live in more boring times.

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@FpUser 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I was hoping that the whole thing was one big case of Russia trolling West for whatever reasons. Now I see that Putin just went insane and acts like a mad dog.

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@a0-prw 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Russia will not accept NATO in Ukraine and have stated so explicitly and clearly.

It is childish to talk about "rights". The West needs to start thinking realpolitik again.

It is childish to focus on Putin. The West needs to get its head out of its arse.

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@the__alchemist 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

https://liveuamap.com/ - Probably the best source for live coverage

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@Gatsky 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

> "To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any of you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."

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@le-mark 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

As a US Army 19k (m1a1 crewman) stationed in Germany in the 80’s and 90’s, this is the fight we trained for incessantly. A horde of then soviet armor; we had A10s, Apaches, javelins, all that built just for this. No sane person courts war, but as old tanker I’m kinda sad it went to the Ukrainians, and not us.

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@miniatureape 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

What is the best way to help people in Ukraine? Are there charities or organizations that I can donate to?

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@unersame 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙



@friedman23 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

This is a tragedy. This is what we get for enabling weak willed leaders and appeasers. People like to joke when basketball players go and visit dictatorships and companies do business with mass murderers. Well here is the result. Another war and more death. We need to have zero tolerance for these psychopathic dictators and their families. Full embargoes. Isolate them to their tiny hell holes and never let them leave.

Fuck the "economy". Freedom is the most important thing, how many more millions need to die before we understand this?

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@jdrc 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

how much support from russians does putin have for this kind of invasion?

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@xyzzy_plugh 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

The party was never truly over, was it?

I know many people who have escaped Ukraine over the last century. I say escaped, because for most of the last hundred years the Ukrainian people have been in a vice. Their culture, society and history have been gradually erased. The expats I know who left a few generations ago don't consider recent generations of Ukrainian peoples to even be Ukrainian. Russia has been bitterly grooming their neighbor ever since they were divorced in the fall of the USSR, but even before that, too.

It's all so sad. Beyond the deaths, turmoil, economic destruction, if Putin sees this through then an entire nation will have been erased. Erased!

I don't want a world war, but we must ask ourselves when is it worth risking sacrifice of that which is personal. When the next nation is consumed? When it's too late?

I recently worked with some really lovely peers from that region, from Ukraine. I wish I could teleport them somewhere else.

All of this makes me feel so sick.

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@mleg 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no more war than it was in Crimea in 2014. I don't justify. It's a political disaster but not a humanitarian one.

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@hnthrowaway0315 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Is this the beginning of end?

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@holoduke 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Meanwhile China is observing and giving green light for operation Taiwan.

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@yumraj 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I'm sure China is watching this very eagerly and taking notes. Fate of Taiwan depends on how the West and the rest of the World reacts against Russia.

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@throwawaymedia 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I'm Ukrainian, but I just want to throw a provocative thought in here. Everyone's talking about how bad and evil Putin is and all that. However, nobody's talking about the _why_ Putin is doing what he's doing. For the past 14 years, Russia is trying to find a solution as for the NATO's expansion to the east. The US does NOT want to stop the expansion despite anything. If I place a tent next to your house and start watching your windows daily, what's going to be your reaction? That is EXACTLY what's happening today. Nobody cares about Ukraine. Neither the US nor Putin. Ukraine is poor country. The _core_ of the problem is the US and its desire to place military bases across the world, including Ukraine, hence next to Russia's borders. Who'd like that? The US didn't like it in 60th during the Cuban Missile Crisis, so is Russia today.

Everything started in April of 2008, during the Bucharest Summit Declaration saying that "NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO". Russia immediately said that this is not going to happen because it affects their security - and it DOES make sense, doesn't it? That led to a war in Georgia. Today it's a war in Ukraine, my home country.

Once again, Putin is just a side effect. The core, the _root_ cause is the US's maniacal NATO expansion aspiration.

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@gxt 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Stupid question, why doesn't NATO extends membership to Russia if it were to match accepted/existing criteria on corruption control, free press, free elections, etc.

Putin never will accept, but Russians surely aren't all Putin's buddies...

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@xyzal 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

If the west fails to act effectively, I bet China will invade Taiwan in the following years.

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@xyst 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

NATO needs to stop the bleeding. It's silly to think Ukraine is where it will stop.

Stop pussyfooting with the sanctions and fully block trade with Russia. Might need to consider sanctions with China as well...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/china-ref...

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@anshumankmr 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

It is quite interesting to see publications like Jacobin posting obvious flame bait such as this:https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1496693868955246599.

Even Tucker Carlson is parroting Russian propaganda. https://i.redd.it/pr9tnneyemj81.png

I hope the Ukrainian people fight back as hard as they can and the governments of the world help them in any way they can.

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@keewee7 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Every Western country should impose total sanctions on Russia. Stop all trade with Russia.

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@whitepaint 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

Why is it happening exactly now? Just a coincidence?

And why couldn't a deal between NATO and Russia happen? Something like "Okay, Ukraine won't join NATO within the next 10 years"?

Who benefits from this the most? Is there anyone benefiting? I doubt it'd be happening if it wasn't the case, right?

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@throwaway894345 4 months

Replying to @eis 🎙

I really hope the world comes down hard on Russia with sanctions and support for Ukraine, but I’m afraid that so much of Europe depends on Russian gas that they won’t risk getting cut off. Which begs the question: how did Europe allow itself to come to depend so heavily on Russian energy? And how quickly can Russia pivot to buy energy from elsewhere (for a reasonable price)?

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